Warm-intro response-rate calculator

Warm intros work (on average 6-10× better than cold email), but not all warm intros are equal. This estimates the realistic response rate for yours based on three honest inputs.

Strength of your mutual connection

Scale 1–5. 1 = a LinkedIn acquaintance you met once. 5 = a close friend, business partner, or family member.

Months since your last real contact with the mutual

Real contact = a back-and-forth conversation, not a LinkedIn like.

months

How enthusiastic will the mutual be when writing the intro?

Pick the truest option, not the one you wish was true.

Estimated response rate

39%

Worth doing; most people in your position would take this rate.

The factors that matter

Mutual strength. Recipients respond to an intro from someone whose judgment they trust. A casual LinkedIn connection vouching for you lifts response rate a little; a close friend or former coworker can lift your odds several times over.
Recency.The mutual’s vouch decays. If you last spoke six months ago, they have to reconstruct why they like you before they can recommend you, and they often won’t bother putting in the work to do it convincingly.
Enthusiasm.A lukewarm intro (“X asked me to forward this”) is barely warmer than cold. An enthusiastic one (“you should really talk to X, here’s why”) is the one that converts.

What the calculator doesn’t capture

Recipient’s current bandwidth. A great intro to someone in the middle of a launch or a fundraise still won’t reply. Timing isn’t in the model.
Topic relevance.An enthusiastic intro for a topic the recipient doesn’t care about still won’t convert. Match the ask to the person.
Your follow-up. Whether the recipient replies is partly about your intro; whether the conversation continues is about your follow-through. This calculator only models the first reply.